Date Topics & Readings Notes
10-02-2006 We devote this meeting to the description of a couple of computer models, followed by a discussion of what we could do, which problems we could address, tentative approaches, etc. For useful discussions, you should be somewhat familiar with the basic issues in model calibration, prediction, emulators, etc. A short and basic reference list appears in the readings for date 10-9-06.

a. Bruce Pitman will talk about granular avalanche modeling. A first version of the slides can be downloaded here; he also has provided a brief overview of the main issues they would like to address.

b. Pierre Gremaud will present models of Cerebral Blood Flows. See slide here.
 
10-09-2006  This meeting will be devoted to discussion of the main issues of the approaches we could take. Basic reading is giving bellow. Please get familiar with them (tutorials will not be given) and prepare lists of questions (basic and/or complex) to be discussed in the meeting. (More extended list of readings will be posted soon)

a. Emulators. A basic reading is the paper by  Sacks et al. (1989), with the accompanying discussions here and here.

b. `Traditional’ Bayesian approach. Basic readings:

i. Kennedy and O’Hagan (2001), along with supplementary material that had to be cut off from the paper, which can be downloaded from here and here.

ii. A very detailed, but yet basic, technical report Bayarri et al. (2002).

c. ‘Linear Bayes’ approach. Michael Goldstein will be presenting the basics of the Linear Bayes approach, via Webex. Download the slide here. Do not be shy and have questions prepared for him!

i. Craig et al. (2001) describes a general Bayesian approach for using the simulator to forecast system outcome. Download here.

ii. Goldstein (1998) presents a basic description of the linear Bayes approach, and Craig et al. (1997) discusses its implementation to CompMode calibration.  Download the files here and here.

iii. A shorter version Craig et al. (1996) can be downloaded here.
 
 10-16-2006 We keep exploring different simulators and associated problems. In this session we will be presented with new models, some of them somewhat simple (useful for methodology discussions) followed by discussion of the possibilities for the interests of the Methodology working group.

a. Peter Riehert will be presenting hydrology models. Slide is here.

b. Ken Reckhow will be presenting water quality models. Slide is here.
References to the treed GP model:

a. Link to the main reference for treed Gaussian Processes.

b. Link to the main reference for adaptive sampling .

c. Link to the R package tgp.
 10-23-2006 At this point, we will be confronted with new and very challenging models

a. Bernt Mueller will introduce relativistic heavy ion collider model, needed for studying what the universe may have looked like in the first few moments after its creation.

b. Jim Clark will present a challenging (for emulator purposes) dynamical terrestrial model, with complex interactions between statistical (hierarchical) spatial models, and several simulators. This is a complex dynamical model.
 
 10-26-2006

Joint Engineering and Methodology Subprograms Workshop

9:15am-6:30pm

WebEx and Teleconferencing

 10-27-2006 Joint Engineering and Methodology Subprograms Workshop

9:30am-4:30pm

WebEx and Teleconferencing

 10-30-2006

 No meeting. 

Bayesian Random Matrix Workshop.