Due: Monday, July 25, 9:30am

Submission: Submit three files on Sakai:

  1. Rmd for Part 1
  2. HTML for Part 1
  3. Word or PDF for Part 2

Part 1

Complete Exploring and visualizing risk factors of breast cancer and submit your R Markdown (Rmd) and HTML files.

Part 2

  1. A genetic test is used to determine if people have a predisposition for thrombosis, which is the formation of a blood clot inside a blood vessel that obstructs the flow of blood through the circulatory system. It is believed that 3% of people actually have this predisposition. The genetic test is 99% accurate if a person actually has the predisposition, meaning that the probability of a positive test result when a person actually has the predisposition is 0.99. The test is 98% accurate if a person does not have the predisposition. What is the probability that a randomly selected person who tests positive for the predisposition by the test actually has the predisposition?

  2. Lupus is a medical phenomenon where antibodies that are supposed to attack foreign cells to prevent infections instead see plasma proteins as foreign bodies, leading to a high risk of blood clotting. It is believed that 2% of the population su↵er from this disease. The test is 98% accurate if a person actually has the disease. The test is 74% accurate if a person does not have the disease. There is a line from the Fox television show House that is often used after a patient tests positive for lupus: “It’s never lupus.” Do you think there is truth to this statement? Use appropriate probabilities to support your answer.

  3. Most companies drug test their employees before they start employment, and sometimes regularly during their employment as well. Suppose that a drug test for an illegal drugs is 97% accurate in the case of a user of that drug, and 92% accurate in the case of a non-user for that drug. Suppose also that 5% of the entire population uses that drug. You are the hiring manager at a company that drug tests their employees. You have recently decided to hire a new employee. The prospective employee gets drug tested, and the test comes out to be positive. What is the probability that they are actually a user for the drug?