STA104/MTH135: Probability

Lectures:Tue & Thu 2:15-3:30pm Bio Sci 130
Prof:Robert L. Wolpert TA:Fabio Rigat
E-mail: wolpert@stat.duke.edu fabio@stat.duke.edu
Office: Old Chem 211c, 684-3275 Old Chem 222, 684-8840
OH:Mon 2:00-3:00pm Tue 4:00-6:00pm
Tue & Thu 3:30-4:00pm (in classroom)

Description

This is a basic calculus-based first course in the theory and application of probability. It develops quantitative methods for solving problems that involve uncertainty, and provides a foundation for the further study of statistics or random processes. Many probability calculations are based on summing infinite series or on evaluating integrals, often in more than one dimension, so multivariate calculus at the level of MTH103 is a prerequesite for this course. If you are unsure about your calculus preparation, try this diagnostic quiz.

The course text is Sheldon Ross, A First Course in Probability (5th edn). All class materials are distributed on-line via the web; for example, you may view homework assignments (and sometimes class notes) on the Syllabus. A class e-mail directory is available on-line.


Homework Assignments

The only way to be sure you're learning the course material is to solve problems (or, as Sophocles put it, One must learn by doing the thing; for though you think you know it, you have no certainty until you try.) Ten weekly problem sets are assigned through the on-line syllabus. Homeworks are collected at the START of class each Thursday, after which solutions will be posted on the web. Late homeworks will not be accepted for full credit without a Dean's Excuse, but the lowest homework score will be dropped. Partial credit is available for homeworks turned in no more than a few hours late.

You may work with other students on the homework problems, but your final answers should be written up independently: copying homework solutions is not allowed. You are encouraged to ask the professor and the TA for help on your homework, after you have tried to solve the problems on your own. Questions about homework scores should first be addressed to the TA.

Some homework assignments will have a computing component. You may use whaterver computing environment you prefer; good choices include MatLab, S-Plus, C, Mathematica, or Maple (all of these will become tools you can use in later work, making them preferable to spreadsheets like Excel or 123, old-fashioned statistics environments like SAS or SPSS, introductory languages like BASIC or Pascal). If you are undecided I would recommend Matlab or S-Plus, for which you can get help from your instructors and can find a free primer or notes on the web.

Help is available! The TA and I both have office-hours (see above); in addition, Duke Statistics maintains an open Help Session every Mon-Thu afternoon (4-6pm) in room 211 Old Chem (just outside my office), where a statistics graduate student will be happy to help you.


Quizzes

On most Thursdays we will have in-class quizzes, to help you judge your progress and to help me set the course pace. Missed quizzes are not made up; it's impossible to do so in a fair way, because quizzes are so tightly tied to the material for that week that it would be unfair to the class to let a student take it late, and unfair to the student to ask him or her to take it before the material has been presented. Instead, I will drop each student's lowest five quizzes, so everyone is welcome to miss about half the quizzes for any reason whatever-- a team athletic trip, a religious holiday, an illness, etc. Thus no make-up quizzes are allowed for any reason. Quizzes are open-book and open-note, and you may use a calculator if you wish, but (of course) collaboration is not permitted. Past quizzes will be added to the syllabus web page.


Tests

In-class Midterm Exams and Final Exam are closed-book and closed-notes with a formula sheet permitted (one-sided, 8½"×11" for each midterm, and two-sided, 8½"×11" for the final). You should bring to each exam a calculator capable of computing exponentials, powers, and factorials. Any questions regarding exam grades should be taken up with the professor. Tests from recent STA104 offerings are available to help you know what to expect and to help you prepare for this year's tests:
Fall 1995: 1st Midterm (pdf) 2nd Midterm (pdf) Final Exam (pdf)
Fall 1996: 1st Midterm (pdf) 2nd Midterm (pdf) Final Exam (pdf)
Fall 1997: 1st Midterm (pdf) 2nd Midterm (pdf) Final Exam (pdf)
Fall 1999: Midterm (pdf) Final Exam (pdf)
These old exams and several other course materials (e.g., the diagnostic
quiz) are offered in PostScript form. The ACPub cluster computers are all configured properly to display and print PS documents; if your home computer is not, click here for Windows platforms and here for Linux or Macs to get the GSview add-in.


Grades

Course grades are based on two in-class Midterm Exams (20% each), ten in-class Quizzes (5% total), ten weekly Homework assignments (20% total), and a cumulative Final Exam (35%). Lowest homework and lowest five quizzes are dropped, but missed quizzes and homework receive zero scores. Late homeworks are penalized. Histograms and summary statistics of midterm and final exam grades will be added to the syllabus web page. Each student's current average and course grade are available from the instructor at any time.


Honor Code

Cheating on quizzes or exams, plagiarism on homeworks and projects, and other forms of academic dishonesty are violations of the Duke Honor Code and will be referred to the Undergraduate Judicial Board.


Excused Absence

Students who miss tests or assignments due to illness (you must go to Student Health or the Student Infirmary), family tragedy, religious holiday observance, varsity athletic trip or class field trip, etc., or who have three examinations scheduled within 24 hours, may be eligible for a Dean's Excuse; check with your academic dean for details. No excuse is needed simply for missing class, only for missed assignments and examinations.