26.1 a) True (p 481) b) False. The null says the difference is due to chance; the alternative says the effect is real. 26.2 a) The test was like 3800 draws with replacement from a box with an unknown number of red numbers. The null hypothesis contends that the proportion of reds in the box was 18/38, the alternative says that the proportion of reds was greater. b) The expected number of reds, according to the null hypothesis, is 1800 in the test. The SE of the number of reds is (3800)^.5 * .5 = 31, so the Z-score of the test is about 2.9, which gives a p of about .002 c) You can reject the null hypothesis with that p-score. (note that this does not mean that you "proved" that there were too many reds; instead your test showed that it was extremely unlikely for this number of reds to occur by chance.) 26.4 The TA claims that his average of 55 was the result of 30 draws from the box of 900 tickets with a mean of 63 and a SD of 20. The SE of that draw would be 20 / (30)^.5 = 3.65, so the Z score for an observation of 55 would be given by: (55 - 63) / 3.65 = -2.2, which has an associated p of .01. It is unlikely that the TA's grades are due to chance. 26.8 The data are like 1000 draws from the box of people in the county. Under the null hypothesis, the people in the county have the same educational background as people throughout the country (mean = 13 yrs, SD = 5 yrs, the spread of people in the sample). The SE of the average of these draws is 5 / (1000) ^.5 = .16. z = (14-13) / .016 = 6, p about 0%. Some demographic factor causes this county to be more educated than the nation as a whole (perhaps a college is present). 26.12 a) There are 59 pairs, and in 52 of them, the treatment animal has a heavier cortex. On the null hypothesis, the expected number is 59*0.5=29.5 and the SE is sqrt(59)*0.5=3.84. So 52 is nearly 6 SEs above average, and the chance is close to 0. Inference: treatment made the cortex weigh more. b) The average is about 36 milligrams and the SD is about 31 milligrams. The SE for the average is 4 milligrams, so z=36/4=9 and P = about 0 (This is like the tax example in section 1). Inference: treatment made the cortex weigh more. c) This binds the person doing the dissection to the treatment status of the animal. It is a good idea because it prevents bias; otherwise the researcher might skew the results to favor the research hypothesis.